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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 12:54pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: "slo-mo Rapture" & our GD Forum conversation

Some excellent comments and valuable feedback about our GD Forum conversation on "slo-mo Rapture" and survival on Planet Earth.

A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never!
By Bill McKibben, Published in The Washington Post on May 23, 2011

Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week’s shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history). No, that doesn’t mean a thing.

It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected.

If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air.

It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest. (CNN's Anderson Cooper is the biggest whore in the News Business!)

Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline?

Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.” Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don’t start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year’s failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland’s failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France’s and Germany’s current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic.

It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.


Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign 350.org and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont.

• Consider re-reading the GD Forum's interesting discussion we had about Bill McKibben, climate change, and the 350 dot org web site on Oct 24, 2009.

World in the Balance, by Lester Brown

Bill McKibben interview on Democracy Now!, May 26, 2011

Fossil Fuel slo-mo Rapture
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This post was modified by dead-head_Monte on 2011-05-26 19:54:13

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Poster: dark.starz Date: May 30, 2011 5:28pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Heed caution when camping this spring-summer in the mountains. As you're aware the snowpack is at record levels and flash flooding is a reality in the Rocky Mountain Front Range.

The Big Thompson River Canyon Flood July 31st - August 1st, 1976.

http://www.assessment.ucar.edu/flood/flood_summaries/07_31_1976.html

Extreme Fort Collins Flood July 28th, 1997

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/~odie/rain.html


Most people are unaware that:

•80% of flood deaths occur in vehicles, and most happen when drivers make a single, fatal mistake trying to navigate through flood waters.

•Just 6 inches of rapidly moving flood water can knock a person down.

•A mere 2 feet of water can float a large vehicle even a bus.

•One-third of flooded roads and bridges are so damaged by water that any vehicle trying to cross stands only a 50% chance of making it to the other side.

•The Big Thompson Canyon Flood killed 140 people in 1976. It proved a tragic illustration of a sobering statistic 95% of those killed in a flash flood try to outrun the waters along their path rather than climbing rocks or going uphill to higher grounds.

•Remember, it does not have to be raining for a flash flood to occur. Some of the most dangerous floods originate many miles away.


This post was modified by dark.starz on 2011-05-31 00:28:35

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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 2:38pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

- I was flying over Denver in a Boeing 727 when the Big Thompson River Canyon Flood hit in 1976. It was a disaster on the ground there. No more planes were being allowed to land in Denver, and refueling aircraft was not happening. After circling over Denver for an hour or 2, we were low on fuel. We diverted to Cheyenne. I was stuck there for 12 hours with no money. I was trying to return to Louisville, KY, after doing a sound man gig with Bluegrass Alliance band in Jackson Hole, WY for 2 weeks.

- Extreme Fort Collins Flood July 28th, 1997: I was just a few miles north of Fort Collins at this time, working as an electronics maintenance engineer at KGWN-TV in Cheyenne... working my butt off for our News Dept during that flood. I was making sure all the correct news packages, video feeds, live shots, and satellite uplinks were getting this story out.

This post was modified by dead-head_Monte on 2011-05-26 21:38:44

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: May 26, 2011 9:55am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Well, the Mexicans and Chinese are pumping oil out of the Gulf as fast as you please, and we have high unemployment and higher gas prices (which means everything costs more). Anecdotes do not make reality. Isn't the climate always changing? (Greenland?) Always one of the biggest factors in human history's adaptation and survival?

And that Congress so nobly voting last spring for, 'climate change is occurring', was one of the worst sessions in history (even worse then the recent prior ones). Thank you for the debt. I can't wait for the subpoenas to come out when the scandals begin over where the money really went.

Fossil fuel companies are the evil villain? Apple's profits were up 40% in '10, compared to 10% with Exxon-Mobil. Let's start hammering Apple for excessive corporate profit. What does Job's make in relation to his lowest paid worker?
Why do you not hammer the government, the real Colossus, for being a stifling, moldy, damp blanket, crushing innovation and creativity? How about 5% cut across the board and sell some of those those Western lands. What does the Federal government own, 1/3 of the land West of the Mississippi? We need to put Americans to work and try to establish some manufacturing base again. The snowy owls or whatever will have to figure it out.
Lastly, pollution? Check out China and India (or the ex-Warsaw pact countries).

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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 1:05pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Re: "Thank you for the debt."

After taping the Grateful Dead in 1973, and then becoming a sound man, I worked in electronics for 30 years. Most of my professional electronics career involved maintaining professional video and audio systems in TV Stations, Distance Learning systems, News Room systems, Cable TV Networks, and News Channels. Since the year 2000, The News Media has gotten much, much worse. The US News Media has been churning out pure lies and propaganda. I was guilty because I was maintaining their equipment and systems, and I was being paid for that. In 2005, I made my final objections, and then I walked away from it! I haven't worked in 5 years. I live on $5 or $10 per day! I buy absolutely NOTHING whatsoever. My medical care is my mmj permit! I haven't driven my car in 9 months - on purpose. But I pay full auto insurance rates, registration fees, and driver's license fees. I have 2 bicycles, and I use them. I also own some very good camping gear, and an excellent inventory of clothing for all types of weather and outdoors conditions. I go outdoors every day, exercise regularly, and keep my diet reasonably healthy. I have a very small place, no furniture, and I own no material possessions. That's why I have no monetary debt. Nor do you have any debt to repay me.

It's your future. I'm 60. The future for me: Game Over! Service jobs - like the GOOD ONES I had (with good pay!) servicing Ampex equipment - are GONE! Today "jobs in the service sector" means lots of jobs flipping burgers at McDonalds, or folding sheets and towels at Ramada Inn hotel.

On my first work day at Ampex's huge Audio Video Systems Division factory in Colorado Springs in July, 1979 - Ampex managers had their workers boxing up Ampex's entire pro-Audio manufacturing line! Ampex was outsourcing their entire manufacturing, inspection, and shipping of pro-Audio tape decks to Juarez, Mexico. Ampex's Video equipment would continue to be manufactured in the USA. Ampex had a huge Magnetic Tape Division with a big factory in Opelika, Alabama. They also had lots or employees who worked in that division, as well as many, many customers. Ampex went out of business around 1995. Outsourcing US (and European) jobs to slave labor camps is what we have now. Our sold-out and corrupt government is being run by Wall Street Ponzi schemes.
Re: "Let's start hammering Apple for excessive corporate profit."
China urges factory safety after iPad plant blast
(In 25 years, Ampex never had a plant explosion in Colorado Springs!)
By Joe McDonald, AP Business Writer – Wed May 25, 2011

BEIJING – Beijing urged Foxconn Technology Group and other Taiwanese companies on Wednesday to ensure safety in their mainland China factories after a fatal blast at a facility that makes Apple iPads.

Last Friday's explosion at the facility owned by Foxconn, Apple's main manufacturing contractor, killed three employees. Foxconn blamed combustible dust in a workshop that polishes products and suspended production at the factory in the western city of Chengdu, prompting questions about whether supplies of the popular iPad 2 might be disrupted.

"We hope Foxconn and other Taiwan-invested enterprises can learn from this, carry out their safety responsibilities, strengthen internal inspection and management, root out hidden dangers in a timely way and ensure safe production," said Fan Liqing, a spokesman for Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office.

Taiwanese companies have invested billions of dollars in the mainland despite their government's lack of formal ties with Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory.

Fan said the Chengdu explosion was believed to be a "production safety incident" but gave no details.

Foxconn, a unit of Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., manufactures mobile phones, computers and other products under contract for Apple Inc. and other global brands such as Hewlett Packard Inc. The company employs an estimated 1 million to 1.1 million people in China at a series of huge factory campuses.

Other Taiwanese-owned factories in China producing clothing, toys and other goods employ millions more. They are moving into higher-value electronics, computer chips and other products.

Foxconn produces the iPad 2 in Chengdu and at its flagship China manufacturing campus in Shenzhen, near Hong Kong.

The company has not said how iPad 2 production might be affected, but research firm IHS iSuppli said lost output might total 500,000 units at a time when Apple says it is struggling to keep up with strong demand.
Re: "We need to put Americans to work and try to establish some manufacturing base again."
Bingo! Thank You! Right On! Let's start with what Jerry said in the 1967 Hippie Temptation interview:
Jerry Garcia:
What we're thinking about is a peaceful planet. We're not thinking of anything else. We're not thinking about any kind of power. We're not thinking about any of those kinds of struggles. We're not thinking about revolution or war or any of that. That's not what we want. Nobody wants to get hurt. Nobody wants to hurt anybody. We would all like to be able to live an uncluttered life, a simple life, a good life and think about moving the whole human race ahead a step.


This post was modified by dead-head_Monte on 2011-05-26 20:05:08

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: May 26, 2011 12:32pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

I ,at times, lived your lifestyle. In my Twenties! God Bless man. It does afford a greater sense of freedom I think. Tough life though.
I hope you are not right about our future standard of living, but you may well be. I can't assume such a future, though I personally think things are chancy right now. A collective held breath. It's my kids. It's the cliche, "I want a better life yada yada." But it holds a powerful sway. I can't give up. History is not deterministic. Which leads us to Jerry's quote. I don't think there is anyone here that would not agree with his statement. It's why we listen to the music (alot), delve into the history with eager eyes, or contribute to this forum. His quote transcends our current politics and civil culture. It is one of the ways back.

Quick pick on Apple. A government waste or corruption story?

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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 28, 2011 1:56pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

It's a Corruption Story! Check out the points about Matt Taibbi and his excellent reporting in Rolling Stone Magazine.

You and Apple should try and understand that old analog equipment, and old tapes, weren't that bad sounding. Three years ago I published some old tapes of mine that were recorded on audio cassettes 38 years ago. They sounded really, really good! I played them back on my 38-year-old Nakamichi portable tape deck.

Today, I just did some simple repairs on my old stereo amplifier (receiver unit). It had a small glitch, and a bit of intermittent distortion in the left audio channel. This equipment has been through hell, and the gear still works fine. And I can still go inside these devices and do simple trouble-shooting and repairs. I just fixed up my Marantz 2270 Receiver / Amplifier. I bought the damned thing used in 1973!

One pair of my big speakers has some dried out speaker components, due to decades of living in the very dry climates of Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico. They're ruined. This is the single common-denominator problem for a lot of equipment out here: Low Humidity! Stuff dries out over time and gets ruined. (In electronics, some capacitors go bad because of this, after many years.) My other speakers are still fine. Turn up the music!

old GD tapes sound awesome on my fixed up Marantz 2270 amplifier / receiver unit

2270.jpg

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Poster: snow_and_rain Date: May 26, 2011 12:30pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

"How about 5% cut across the board and sell some of those those Western lands. What does the Federal government own, 1/3 of the land West of the Mississippi? We need to put Americans to work and try to establish some manufacturing base again. The snowy owls or whatever will have to figure it out."

1. Making "across the board" cuts is about the dumbest possible way to shrink the government. Cuts need to focus on cutting wasteful and redundant programs and not simply slash every budget across the board. That might be good politics, but it's terrible policy.

2. Who would you like to sell the federal land out west to? China? The only chance we have to keep any of our western wilderness areas intact is to keep them in government hands and work on improving federal land management. Once they sell it off, it's gone forever. If you have an idea that doesn't involve selling of the national patrimony to the Chinese, I'm all ears.

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: May 26, 2011 12:48pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

I'm all for surgical cuts. Do you really think this government is capable of that? And the mantra would be, if my ox is getting gored yours better too.

The land is sovereign. Hopefully American companies. I don't know. Something to think about.

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Poster: splue Date: May 26, 2011 1:06pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

yeh the govt is kinda hoggy!!!

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Poster: Finster Baby Date: May 27, 2011 5:43am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Sell the land to anyone that can afford to buy it. The federal government has no business owning it.

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Poster: dead-head_Monte Date: May 26, 2011 10:42am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Re: "Why do you not hammer the government, the real Colossus, for being a stifling, moldy, damp blanket, crushing innovation and creativity?"

We had a good discussion about this on The GD Forum, December 23, 2009.

The Airing of Grievances and Feats of Strength

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: May 26, 2011 12:09pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

Wow! My kids in the room towards the end.
Boy, people do not like that woman. Evan 'feminists', which I find very odd. We know how jots feels.

edit- Well, we know she just bought a huge mansion in Arizona (just to make your day brighter WT & SDH) so she may be out of your neck of the woods jots. But this came over the wire,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55783.html

This post was modified by micah6vs8 on 2011-05-26 19:09:52

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Poster: dark.starz Date: May 26, 2011 1:38pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: We have yet to begin the 2011 Hurricane season.

Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.

On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.

In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 1950–2010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58). On April 6, 2011, the CSU slightly revised their December forecast, predicting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

On May 19, 2011, the Climate Prediction Center issued NOAA's outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. The CPC expected that 12–18 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes would form in the Atlantic during 2011. The center cited above-normal sea surface temperatures, a weakening La Niña, and the effect of the warm regime of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as the bases behind their forecast, adding that seasonal climate models hint that "activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995" could occur.

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Poster: splue Date: May 26, 2011 12:47pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: 'slo-mo Rapture' & our GD Forum conversation

i find this discussion fascinating, thx 4 posting